Hi all. Quarterly I attend a local residential real estate market update meeting. At Coldwell Banker Lunsford, we do a good job at keeping up with the data!
We had the Indiana Association of Realtors in today too. Numbers and summary are condensed and as accurate as I could write!
Here’s IAR’s report summary:
- We say a blip in the GDP numbers (last QTR saw a lack of restocking, govt spending was down too. This was -1.3% move in GDP.) Will we follow Europe into another recession? Mike Hicks a local economic forecaster thinks so. Others aren’t so sure.
- NAR (nat’l assoc of realtors), Fannie Mae, and MBA (mort banker assoc) all are not forecasting a recession. Let’s face it… economists are not good at predicting a turning point. And these 3 seem still positive. All predicting lower employment too.
- We still have historically low rates. The forecast is for this to increase slightly over the next 2 years — perhaps to the 4% zone.
- TRENDS: 1) Demand for housing to surge, 2) Generation X&Y will choose to be a force in buying, 3) Prices will rise, 4) Move up sellers will return, 5) Consumers demand their Realtor be an expert
- 89% of sellers use an agent (I think this is too small a number)
- 38% of buyers are first time buyers
- Indian median income is $63,500 — that’s very low. 38th of 50 in state rank. This is a big deal!
Jim Kouns of Coldwell Banker Lunsford, reported on our local market:
- 14.5% increase in units sold in 2012 (in Delaware county)
- He continued to emphasize how jobs are driving demand for housing.
- Avg sale price was up 5% last year, up 2 years in a row.
- Avg sale price was $89,600, with 86% below $150,000
- $150,000 – $200,000 priced homes were actually down in price in 2012
- $300,000 and up was flat to slightly down in price
- $200,000 – $250,000 was actually up slightly.
- 26% were foreclosure, down the last 2 years. 42% were cash sales (seems high), and 23% were FHA sales (seems low)
- CBLunsford sold 31% of all listings (#1 ranking) in our entire board
- CBLunsford has a 50% market share over $100,000 price point and $200,000 came in at 49% market share.
- Property taxes were up big this year. Back to 2005 levels. Keep an eye on this.
- Sale prices are around 15% less than assessed value and has widened a bit. (note, this is by no means a universal rule — it’s very neighborhood specific). This seems huge and again something we need to watch. How in the world is this flat to widening? We have less foreclosures and higher prices over the last 2 years. Hmmmm.
- Active listings are way down! 455 listed as of today in Delaware County and should be over 800 usually. High was 2006 with 849 listed. Down 6 years in a row! Sellers still perceiving this as buyers market, but seller’s aren’t doing so bad right now.
- Very balanced market in absorption rate — 6 months. $300,000 + is over 9.6 months. Fastest sellers are $150,000-$200,000 range.
- Condo/Villas are selling well. Up 6.2% in units sold. Biggest in 5 years.
- Building permits still not good. Up slightly to 24 (outside city limits). We need new homes! $125-175k price point most popular.
- Forecast for 2013: 1) Units sold up 8%, 2) Avg price up 7% and up to $95,000 avg, 3) Inventory to remain at 6 months with avg days on market 130 days., 4) property tax rates the same, 5) Foreclosures to keep dropping slightly, 6) New construction permits to rise to 30 this year.
All in all… it means we’re going to busy!
If you have interest in selling or buying, just give us a call!