Editor’s note: This is the third and final installment of MuncieJournal.com’s exclusive three part series on housing in Muncie and Delaware County. 

By John Fallon and Steve Slavin—

MUNCIE, IN—In the minds of many folks in our community, any assessment of the housing situation is the product of subjective judgment.  Even though such an analysis lends itself to factual verification, it seems that many rely on assumptions and personal opinions. Our research confirms that most people believe what was good for development and growth in the past should work going forward.

We think the solutions need to be more innovative and entrepreneurial than that.  This difference of perspective is both longstanding and challenging.  But based on our review of related data and information, it is clear to us that the community would benefit from a targeted plan for additional housing that is rooted in local demography, economics, trends, and specific aspirations set at some point in the future.  It is toward this that we believe that the housing needle must be moved.  But how does the needle get moved?  Toward what specific directions should the needle tilt?  What procedures and systems are involved?  And how is this decided?

In Part I of this series, we made the case for a housing commission or task force to study this matter in great detail and come up with a forward-thinking plan for housing.  Further, our recommendation included the appointment of individuals to this that represented a variety of “stakes” in more and better local housing…and represented knowledge, insights, and experiences that would qualify them to render sound and solid judgments…folks like builders, developers, realtors, local government officials, bankers, appraisers, and even leaders of large organizations for which employee housing has proven problematic in the past.  We know folks in each of these categories and, rather than waiting on the establishment of a body to take this on, we decided to ask them what they think.  The balance of this piece includes their perspectives.

A local government leader believes strongly that additional housing is required to accommodate current and future employees, retirees, and families.  While there are opportunities to develop additional housing in various sectors of the community, the core downtown area and adjacent neighborhoods are priorities.  To the extent that such development can take place in any of the three designated Opportunity Zones in the community, there are economic advantages and benefits associated with doing so.  Further, a “revolving housing fund,” patterned after local business loan programs, holds promise.  Other communities have been successful with these approaches and we can learn from them.

Tax abatements could be a tool used again in our community, but these are time sensitive and require formal approval.  Other innovative incentives are certainly options, but politicians are not particularly keen on securing them during an election year.  Are other Federal grants available to us?  Yes, but smaller communities like ours do not have dedicated staff to research and pursue them.  Can we demolish more abandoned homes?  Of course, but this is expensive.  Even though we have more than 1,000 homes ready to be torn down, we have limited financial resources to do so.

The fact that virtually all housing in the core downtown area is occupied was of concern to a local non-profit executive.  Most of this housing was developed by local investors and deploys a market-based rate structure.  This squares with housing trends nationally as does an ongoing demand evidenced by regular calls regarding downtown housing vacancies.  The executive embraced the strategic view of strengthening and increasing the core of downtown housing to accommodate demand and managing such development prospects to eventually spill into the adjacent neighborhoods.

When talking to developers and home builders, a common theme was this: sale price minus cost equals profit.  The cost of a 2×4 here is basically the same as one in Dallas, TX.  The cost of adding roads, curbs, sewers, and labor is only going up there as it is here and these costs are essentially the same.  Yet other markets offer greater consumer amenities or have business and industry driving population up which pushes home prices up as more people seek to buy the limited supply of homes.  Developing 50 building lots here costs the same as it does in Pensacola, FL, but developers here have a much smaller profit potential because the sale price is less.

So, the developer asks: ‘why develop here?’  Beyond this, interest expense is a major concern for developers and builders.  Holding lots as they sell for 10+ years is not an option for most.  This “velocity of sales,” as it’s called in the business, just takes time.  When we ask a regional builder to construct three hundred homes here, their response is: ‘how fast can your market absorb them?’ The honest answer is…we just don’t know, but we sense it’s more than they think.  To them, though, that’s not good enough.

Even with potential tax credits to offset possible short appraisals, local builders would think twice about building in less desirable parts of town.  Why?  Builders simply would invest first in areas that represent less risk.  This is why we must continue to look to outside investors who have the capacity to take on this perceived risk.

Local bankers and mortgage brokers have recognized the need to incentivize home ownership by offering types of loans where deposits are minimal.  Local police, firefighters, EMTs, professors, and medical professionals all have home loans available to them with no money down.  The Indiana Housing and Community Development Authority (IHCDA) offers down payment assistance if you live in the state and qualify for an FHA mortgage.  The Veteran’s Administration and the USDA offer zero-down programs.  With FHA loans, only 3.5% down is required.  Of course, all these loans require favorable credit.  But lending money to develop lots is quite another story.  These speculative loans are not often a priority for conservative banks.

As difficult as it seems to spark new development, our community DOES have a lot to offer new residents:  location with easy access to Indianapolis, improving schools, remarkable trails and emerging river amenities, active private and community foundations, precious cultural attractions, an increasingly vibrant downtown district, high-quality higher education opportunities, many and varied health and medical resources, and no small measure of Hoosier friendliness.

Among those who fully understand the dynamics associated with more and better housing, there is no shortage of ideas.  We have both assets and challenges.  The establishment of a housing task force/commission represents a mechanism through which all these ideas can be discussed, validated or not, refined, and considered for their potential.  From there, then, a strategic plan for housing—something that has never existed in our community—can be developed and implemented.

The needle will get moved.

Editor’s note: This is the second of a three part series on housing in Muncie and Delaware County. 

By John Fallon and Steve Slavin—

MUNCIE, IN—We believe strongly that the housing needle in our community needs to be moved.  Further, we think that there is some urgency for this and that we need to do this aggressively.  The natural forces of the local housing market will not resolve our housing dilemma by themselves…at least not anytime soon.  In fact, we are certain that it was these very forces that led to our present situation.  While we will benefit from additional related research and analysis, what we need is an unbridled commitment to action.

To be certain, this will not be easy.  There are no shortcuts along the way and no amount of pixie dust can fix this for us.  We need a clear-eyed assessment of the variables that contribute to our need for more and better housing and an understanding of potential solutions.  And all of this begins with a clarion call for change: we can fix our housing situation ourselves…but not by relying on the same old strategies and approaches.  Business as usual won’t work.

Any overview of the challenges associated with addressing our housing situation includes a variety of factors that are seemingly intractable and daunting for their effect.  Such fundamental and well-known considerations as the shortage of materials and supplies required for new construction and the availability of skilled and able workers to build are prominent.  Supply chain issues and inadequate supplies of able personnel are relatively recent developments, but their impacts are no less significant.  Some local folks are also quick to point out that the availability of land, particularly in desirable or high-demand sectors of our community, looms large as a problem.  And these issues exist against a backdrop of longstanding and large-scale neglect of housing here.

On another level, money itself occupies center stage as a major consideration.  The economic calculus of home construction, as it presently exists, is such that it is not particularly profitable for builders.  And there are few, if any, other types of incentives toward the construction of new homes.  Affordability is yet another challenge as increasingly higher home prices result in a progressively smaller pool of buyers.  Lending practices are also a factor.  According to American Financing, a national home mortgage lender, the American home mortgage model largely in use today is nearly one century old.  While this model has been tweaked along the way, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 housing crisis, the basic approach to lending was developed in an earlier era…and for a different era.

These challenges are not for the faint of heart.  Their difficulty and complexity are, in fact, reasons why we haven’t fixed our housing situation already.  But difficulty alone, and the confounding nature of this, shouldn’t stand in the way of innovation and entrepreneurship in approaching this now.  Truth be told, this is likely the only way forward.

There is no single silver bullet solution to our housing challenge.  But there is a variety of strategies that, when pursued together, can have a significant impact.  The World Economic Forum (3/24/22), for example, identified several promising policies financial incentives that impact both supply (tax abatements) and demand (low-interest loans and lower down payments on mortgage loans).  CNN, in its online Business Perspectives (2/16/22), published an opinion piece by Janneke Ratcliffe (VP for the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute) titled “How we can solve the nation’s affordable housing crisis,” in which she advocates toward incentivizing new construction with better lending terms, embracing manufactured housing, and improved financing for existing homes.  Ivory and Colton, in the Stanford Social Innovation Review (December 1, 2020), mention several pathways toward greater housing affordability and availability.  While all of their ideas are interesting, three appear particularly appropriate for our community.

–Removing regulatory barriers to allow homes and apartments to be built faster and less expensively.

–Construction innovations toward increases in construction productivity and speed.

–Creative financing that would allow more people to qualify for a mortgage.

While it might be tempting, perhaps even convenient, to look to state and federal governments for zippy solutions to our local housing challenges, we agree with Minott and Selby (“Ten Actions Cities Can Take to Improve Housing Affordability,” Bipartisan Policy Center, August 10, 2022) in their view that “local governments have considerable influence over housing costs and many policy levers at their disposal to increase the supply of homes and affect their affordability.”  Among their recommendations are included faster and more predictable approvals for developments that meet local zoning laws, the establishment of housing trust funds, and support for community land trusts.

Other organizations have yet other perspectives that hold promise.

–“Rent-to-own and shared equity models” deserve consideration, according to the US Chamber of Commerce in an article entitled “3 Important Future Housing Trends,” (November 1, 2020).

–The Urban Institute’s “Next 50” report on housing (February 2019) suggests “widening home ownership options.”

–“Securing housing funding through municipal bond elections has worked in various communities,” says Pramod Sukumaran in Salud America’s “6 emerging ways cities can solve the affordable housing crisis,” (March 29, 2019).

Even a cursory review of media reports and the literature highlights yet more possibilities…like repurposing vacant buildings, improving housing design, actively engaging neighborhoods in their housing development, and looking to other countries for promising solutions.

But amid the myriad of housing ideas and strategies, there are three themes that emerge as indisputable general propositions to us.

1. Housing challenges are patently local and require tailored local solutions.
2. Effective strategic housing solutions will best emanate from a broad-based local cadre of bankers, realtors, appraisers, developers, builders, and government leaders.
3. The scope for examining housing challenges and exploring solutions must be community wide.

It is these notions that represent the needle that must be moved.

Editor’s note: This is the first of a three part series on housing in Muncie and Delaware County. 

By Steve Slavin and John Fallon—

MUNCIE, IN—The term ‘housing bubble’ is often used to describe rapid increases in real estate prices and demand within a context of limited supply.  This figure of speech is prominent in the media and shows up as the housing market ebbs and flows over time.  And while the notion rolls off the tongue with ease, it is likely not well understood by many.  We suggest a more appropriate local notion along these lines is the needle.  Indeed, most people are familiar with this term to describe a situation as a basis upon which to consider moving that needle in some different direction.

The housing needle in Muncie is largely stuck in place.  This situation is anything but new.  It has persisted for quite some time and can be considered an obstacle to the continuing development of our community.  Many local folks, including us, believe strongly that we need to move this needle.  And there is some urgency associated with this.  While there are many reasons for this view, there are three that are both primary and prominent.

1. WE DON’T HAVE ENOUGH HOUSING

Consider these housing dynamics.

• Year-over-year home listings (-11.8%) and sales (-13.8%) are decreasing based on data from the Indiana Association of Realtors for the period January-September 2021 and 2022. More broadly, according to data from Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group, active listings decreased from 459 in 2015 to 75 in 2021.  At present, there are 88 active listings.
• The local housing absorption rate, the period between home listing and sale, decreased from about 10 months in 2007 to 1 month in 2022. According to the National Association of Realtors, a six-month absorption rate represents a healthy market.
• A survey of prominent local community leaders rated housing affordability and quality relatively high and considered availability quite low.
• At the county’s two largest employers, 34% and 53% of their respective workforces live outside of Delaware County.
• Our community has plenty of apartments aimed at the student market yet remarkably few that could be considered “workforce housing.”
• On 8/1/22, 100% of the condominium units in Delaware County were occupied.

While there is an increasing need for housing for folks aged 55 and older, the most acute housing shortages exist in the single-family homes and condominiums.  One prominent local real estate broker has mentioned repeatedly that he could sell “…an additional sixty condos right now if they were available.”

We need more housing.  We need to move the needle.

2. OUR EXISTING HOUSING STOCK IS INADEQUATE

The housing stock in the city is old.  According to the US Census, about half of the local residential structures were built prior to 1960 and less than 8% were built since the year 2000.  Further, in its most recent long-range plan, the Delaware-Muncie Metropolitan Plan Commission mentions that one in four existing homes in the county shows signs of disinvestment and this is expected to worsen in the future.

The large inventory of distressed properties gives rise to an unusually high housing vacancy rate.  The Muncie Land Bank, in its 2021 strategic plan, indicates that while a healthy vacancy rate is in the 5-7% range, our city’s rate is 16%.  The plan puts this in perspective as follows.

Rates in Muncie and Delaware County are well above healthy levels and correlate with stagnant home values, high levels of disinvestment, and declining conditions.  Many vacant properties are not desirable or marketable to households that have options.  To a prospective home buyer or renter, persistently high vacancy rates will be experienced – counterintuitively – as a shortage of appealing options.

We need better housing.  We need to move the needle.

3. OUR HOUSING SITUATION HAS EMERGED AS AN ACUTE WORKFORCE OBSTACLE

There is a clear relationship between housing and employment.  Indeed, local workforce dynamics reinforce the need for more and better housing.

• Virtually all the county’s largest employers forecast employment growth in the years immediately ahead.
• New employers are locating in Delaware County and there have been recent announcements of additional company locations here.
• Commuter profiles indicate that more than 10,000 workers commute to work in Delaware County while about 7,000 local residents commute to work outside the county.
• According to Stephen Brand, General Manager at Magna Powertrain Muncie, “hiring close to our division is crucial to retaining and keeping those employees engaged. If we hire people outside of our community, they are more likely to leave if they can find a job closer to their home. We are committed to building up our people and our community together and believe hiring where we’re located is best.”

We need to understand that our housing is hard-wired to our local economy.  We need to move the needle.

So, what do we do about this?  How can we move the needle?  One way is to commission a city-wide, high-level blue-ribbon housing development task force to develop an aggressive plan for more and better housing.  Ideally, this body would include the very best local home builders, realtors, bankers, mortgage company representatives, government officials, researchers, appraisers, and community leaders.  And it would be charged with not only developing specific strategies for new housing, but with oversight of the development process as well.

Our housing needle is stuck and we need to move it.  We have the resources and expertise to do it: we can do this.  Until we do, our community will miss many and varied opportunities for future growth and development.

 

Steve Slavin, GRI, is the Manager of the Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group in Muncie and Dr. John A. Fallon, III is Managing Principal at FALLON + Associates LLC